The many promises of Jonathan His campaign promises are legion, but does Jonathan have the capacity to deliver?

President Goodluck Jonathan

As he prepares to be sworn in tomorrow as president,Goodluck Jonathan has the full weight of Nigerians’ expectations on his shoulders. While he was president in the last one year, he has largely dodged answering to such expectations thanks to the successfully well orchestrated campaign by his handlers that the year he had spent was largely spent completing someone else’s tenure (late President Yar’adua) whom he succeeded after his demise. Even though Jonathan was a vice-president under the Yar’adua administration his new team was at pains to explain that his non-stellar performance in office in the one year he succeeded President Yar’adua was because the programmes he inherited were not his programmes. But now that he has won a fresh mandate of four years as president of the country, even Jonathan himself knows he has no excuses this time. His position is not made easy by the fact that 12 years after Nigeria made another go at democracy after decades of military rule the old problems that have confronted the nation have refused to go away. In many ways the country is exactly at the point it was in 1999 when the military handed over power to the civilians. The ethnic and regional grouses over political domination and power sharing have remained, reminiscent of the June 12 crisis that has polarized the nation. Even the president, unfortunately, had to make reference to Nigeria’s civil war past when his election victory was heralded by violent protests in the north following allegations of vote rigging.

And exactly four years ago, while then vice president Jonathan and President Yar’adua stood at the Eagle Square to be sworn in they both had the specter of the rigging that had preceded the election hanging over their heads. This election is no less different in some ways except in the magnitude of condemnation that has trailed the conduct of the previous election. Just like in the past, while the president is been sworn in the opposition has gone to court to challenge his mandate. But despite all these, Jonathan remains well loved and there seem to be a general consensus that he be given the chance to prove himself.

Even though his handlers have spent the last one year trying to emphasize how different he is from his predecessor it would be difficult to avoid obvious similarities in personality and the circumstance of their ascension to power, factors which are pointers to how well the president will live up to the high expectations vested on him. Both Jonathan and Yar’adua  are men with humble public mien, a disposition Nigerians seem to admire in their leaders, as against the tough mien that reminds them of the military men who held sway in the decades past. Both men were relatively unknown people whose personalities makes them ill-fitting matches for the murky waters of Nigerian politics until former president Obasanjo handpicked them to succeed him, obviously in a bid to exercise some control in government when his bid for a third term in office failed.

Once again, Obasanjo has been a large influence in Jonathan’s emergence as president. And while most Nigerians who voted Jonathan justify the reason for their vote on the premise that they voted the man and not his party, the PDP which has been in power in the last twelve years and is largely to blame for the squandered opportunities since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule, it would be foolhardy to deny how the party and the powerful men within it had determined the performance or non-performance of the president. Yar’adua started on a good promise: he was sincere in his acknowledgement that the election that brought him was flawed and made promises of electoral reform; he made a public declaration of his assets and made promises to fight corruption; he reversed some of the controversial decision Obasanjo took while in office, especially the sale of government assets to cronies, and seem to promise he was going to distance himself from some of the actions that have made the PDP unpopular among Nigerians who had the growing perception that it is a party meant to serve purely the interest of the elites who are the ones populating it. But as the days rolled by, one after the other the hopes of Nigerians were dashed. Even after the Uwais committee on electoral reform had made its recommendations it was obvious the PDP was not comfortable with it and Yar’adua was no longer keen about it. The administration also became protective of powerful PDP men who were being prosecuted by the EFCC for corruption charges. The humble mien of the president became a metaphor for slowness in a country in urgent need of quick actions that would reverse the obvious decay taking place. Gradually, the administration withdrew into its shell where even within the PDP there is a growing sense of the isolation of the president by a cabal which seems to have hijacked power all of a sudden.

As Jonathan prepares to be sworn in as another president from the PDP stable, where he is beholden to a lot of powerful members and blocs within the party who were instrumental to his ascension to power, these are observations which raise concern about the promises he has made to Nigerians on making the country’s democracy worth the while of every of its citizens.

The big question is can he deliver on his promises of change and reform without a commensurate change and reform within the PDP itself as a political party? A telling observation is just after Jonathan was made president after the demise of Yar’adua a radical group within the PDP, The PDP Reform Group as they tagged themselves, tried to seize control of the party and tried to initiate changes that will make the party more accountable to the people. The group failed in their quest, some members of the group who felt the PDP is beyond reform left the party entirely to pitch tent with the opposition.

Another telling observation is Jonathan’s response to a recommendation of the Presidential Advisory Panel, a panel he set up to help advice his administration on the directions to take to make its impact in governance effective. On the day the panel submitted its report to him he had told them their recommendation that he reduce the size of his cabinet is impossible. While Jonathan’s excuse is constitutional constraints, the reality is a substantial number of his cabinet members will be nominated, or even probably selected by people who helped him to victory in the elections. Among these people are party godfathers and influential state governors who have seen their power and influence rise as more and more the president rely on them to bring in the votes. Now is what will be described as a payback time.

It was a similar system of reward that played out when Jonathan succeeded Yar’adua. Those who worked to thwart the effort of the cabal that seemed to have hijacked the presidency and ensure Jonathan was made acting president and later president were rewarded with ministerial slots. The dominant verdict now is the cabinet he has worked with has performed poorly. But if the president’s recent comment about maintaining continuity among ministers is anything to go by, he would be starting his fresh mandate with his old team. The question that remains is will the team or an incoming one work such wonders that will make the administration stand out?

The areas needing urgent attention are well known. Chiefly the power sector, health, education and security. Jonathan’s promises during his campaign about reforming these sectors and others are legion. But even while he was making such promises, they were not matched by a clear road map for their actualization. The presidential debate would have provided a forum for Jonathan to be challenged on some of the promises he made but he did not attend. A later debate that was organized by the Nigerian Broadcasting Commission saw Jonathan debating against himself as his opponents boycotted the event out of protest to his non-attendance at the earlier debate organized by NN24. This failure has largely meant that Jonathan never got tested on his grasp of policy in a public forum. Not that this would have mattered much because it was already clear at a point that the presidential elections is largely going to be determined by ethnic and religious factors than by the ability of the candidates in the race.

But it is one of the ironies of Nigerian politics that even if the candidates owe their support and victory to sentimental reasons, immediately they are voted in Nigerians expect to see them perform in office. Jonathan is not going to be exempt from such expectations. Another equally crucial factor is how he is able to juggle the expectations of the different geopolitical zones in the country without bringing the charge of bias against him. Going by the way the nation was divided over his election, an allegation of bias is something that will further polarize the nation. But even at this Jonathan has the full weight of the expectation of the Niger Delta weighing on his shoulders because he is seen as the son of the soil who will address all the injustices of the past. How to meet these expectation without generating outcries from the other region of the country is one of the challenges he will be facing as he settles down to work.

Probably what gives some hope for the success of a Jonathan presidency is a surprising precedence set by his predecessor, Yar’adua, immediately after he settled down to work. Confounding all expectations, Yar’adua became assertive and began to shake off the influence of those who railroaded him to power, giving every indication that he was going to thread his own path not that set for him.  Luckily, Jonathan is not bogged down by health concerns. Now that his ambition to be president has been realized, he can say thank you to the godfathers and influence peddlers and maintain a clear head and begin to work for Nigerians. The only thing that will stand on his path is his courage, will and capacity. But does he have what it takes to muster all these? Only time will tell.